This post has been updated from its 2021 original posting date.
Is There a Food Shortage Coming?
The question is no longer whether or not food shortages are coming—it is now mainstream news that shortages are already here. Just taking a trip to your local grocery or big box store will prove it. While it might not be extreme in your area, certain items are clearly in short supply. But should you panic? And is it too late to prepare? Surprisingly, my answer to both of these questions is no.
We’ve all lived through the Great TP Famine of 2020 (and yes, we’re still traumatized). But today, food shortages are affecting more than just paper products, and they are happening for a variety of reasons. Let’s break it down so you can better understand the issues at play and how to prepare for the months ahead.
Why are There Shortages at the Grocery Store?
Understanding why food shortages are happening can help you better assess what you need to do to be more prepared. If you only have a month’s worth of food stockpiled and supply chain issues persist, you could find yourself in a tough spot. The reality is, multiple factors are colliding to create a perfect storm that is straining our food supply chain.
Labor Shortages and Supply Chain Disruptions
The labor shortage crisis hasn’t gone away. From trucking and rail distribution to food processing and grocery store workers, many industries are still struggling to fill positions. While some of this can be attributed to economic shifts, new government policies, and job market changes, the result is the same—fewer workers mean more delays and higher prices.
Additionally, global shipping disruptions persist, with delays at major ports and increased costs for imported goods. This directly impacts the availability of essential food products, especially those we import in large quantities, like produce, spices, and seafood.
Extreme Weather and Crop Failures
The last few years have seen record-breaking droughts, floods, and storms, all of which impact crop yields. The western U.S., a major producer of fruits, vegetables, and nuts, has continued to struggle with water shortages. Meanwhile, the Midwest has faced unpredictable growing seasons, and international food production has also been affected by changing climate patterns.
When crops fail or yields drop, prices rise, and availability shrinks. Ranchers have also been forced to cull herds due to rising feed costs, which means beef and poultry supplies remain tight.
Fuel Prices and Inflation
Oil prices have seen significant fluctuations, and while they may not be at their highest, fuel remains expensive compared to pre-2020 levels. This affects everything—transportation, farming costs, and even the price of fertilizers. When diesel prices rise, so do food prices, because the cost of transporting goods increases.
Fuel prices affect every part of our life and when the cost to fill up your tank is almost as much as your monthly water bill it hurts. You pay for these increases not only at the pump but at the grocery store, buying goods online, your electric bill, etc… Nearly everything in our day-to-day life is affected by the price of oil. Even if you drive an electric car you are dependent on the company that provides the electricity to your home and that company is affected by the price of oil.
Inflation is another factor squeezing household budgets. Everything costs more, and grocery prices have steadily climbed for the past few years. Fortunately, there are signs of relief in sight.
Fertilizer Shortages (China Bans Sale of Phosphates)
Fertilizer shortages have continued to be a problem, with major exporters like China and Russia restricting exports. The war in Ukraine has further strained global agricultural supplies, as both Ukraine and Russia are significant producers of wheat and other grains.
Fertilizer prices impact farmers’ ability to grow crops efficiently. When fertilizers become too expensive or scarce, yields decrease, leading to higher food costs for consumers.
Economic and Political Uncertainty
Government policies—both domestic and international—play a role in food shortages. Trade restrictions, economic sanctions, and shifting agricultural policies can all impact what ends up on grocery store shelves. Global conflicts and supply chain disruptions are no longer just possibilities; they’re ongoing realities that affect the availability of food.
Panic Buying and Consumer Behavior
Every time there is news of a potential shortage, people panic-buy. We saw it with toilet paper in 2020, baby formula in 2022, and eggs in 2023 and today. When people hear that something might become scarce, they rush to buy as much as they can, which creates even more shortages.
But here’s the truth: Preppers aren’t the ones emptying the shelves. Panic buyers—those who haven’t built up a steady supply over time—are the ones creating the biggest strain when a crisis hits. The key to being prepared is slowly building your stockpile so that when shortages occur, you don’t have to rush out and compete with everyone else. You definitely can be prepared for whatever comes your way.
How Long Could Food Shortages Last?
To be honest there is really no way to predict how long food shortages will last. I’m sure our grandparents and great-grandparents were asking the same thing during the depression of the 1930s. As we’ve seen above there are many factors contributing to what we’re seeing in the grocery stores. And that makes me believe that we will see a fluctuation in what products are available not only over time but also by region. The best thing anyone can do is prepare for the worst and hope for the best. And it is more important now than ever to lessen your reliance on our fragile food system.
How to be Prepared if Food Shortages Get Worse
You need to be thinking about how you can change the way your family eats if food shortages get worse or last for a long period of time. Instead of buying empty calories, you need to buy foods that provide the most nutrition for the lowest price.
- Buy a little bit extra of items your family eats on every shopping trip. Do not clear shelves. Shortages will be different for each region of the country. Stock up on those items that seem to be more available.
- Cook from scratch. A bag of rice can be used to make multiple types of meals whereas a box of Hamburger Helper is a one-shot item.
- If possible start a garden now! This is the best way to supplement your food supply. Remember there are crops that can be grown year-round even in northern climates.
- Stock-pile basics: Flour, sugar, salt, beans, rice, peanut butter, honey, etc… Buy canned foods or can your own food. Make sure they’re items your family will eat.
- Connect with local resources: Farmers, farmer’s markets, bartering groups, and small stores in your area. Avoid big box stores (it’s more likely they will be experiencing shortages.
- If possible raise chickens, they are a great return on investment in small livestock. Plus they are a great source of protein.
Why Being More Self-Reliant is Insurance for Your Family During Supply Chain Disruptions
Last year was a wake-up call for a lot of people. And sadly many didn’t fair too well or to this day are waiting for a return to normal. Unfortunately, I don’t think we are going to see a return to “normal” pre-2020 life anytime soon. That’s why it’s so important to learn from this disaster and make a game plan to ensure your family will not be left in need. Self-reliance shouldn’t be looked at as something weird or difficult. I look at it as one of the most basic forms of freedom and independence. As well as just another form of insurance. After all, we see what happens when we rely too heavily on our fragile food systems and supply chain.
It is absolutely never too late to take the steps needed to help you and your family become more self-reliant and be able to provide food for yourselves.
Beginner Steps to Become More Self-Reliant
- Start a food storage: I know I preach about this all the time but it is absolutely vital to have a food storage. I believe the bare minimum is 3 months worth of food for each member of your family. And remember food quality is just as important as quantity. Ramen is not going to keep your family fed but pasta with tomato sauce will.
- Have a backup water supply: Backup water is an absolute must. I give some great tips in my article about the best products for safe water in your home. It is quite difficult to cook a meal without a safe supply of water.
- Backup power supply: I always planned on getting a generator but didn’t get serious about it until we moved out to the woods and lost power 4 times in one month. I am definitely looking into a solar generator now! It’s fine to have a stockpile of food but if your freezer goes out how much will you lose?
- Create your own food source: To me, this is the biggest step you can take to become self-reliant especially with food shortages happening. Starting a garden or raising small livestock will be the biggest determinant of how affected you will be by supply chain disruptions.
- Get to know your community: Trust me this was something I always shied away from when I lived in Washington State. But now that I live in a small West Virginian town I have learned the value of community. Knowing your neighbors is important. Not just for security reasons. Supply chain issues won’t be a huge problem if you’re trading goods and skills with your friend next door.
- Learn a traditional skill: Many people are learning the value of the skills their grandparents and great-grandparents knew. Last year when nobody could get bread in our area, and yeast was in short supply; sourdough starter became a very popular search on google. Skills I tell people that they should learn during hard times are canning, cooking from scratch, crocheting/knitting, woodworking, foraging, fishing, and hunting to name a few.
- Get rid of unnecessary items: A lot of us are totally dependent on things that have no real value in our lives especially when it comes to surviving a disaster. Think about selling or getting rid of things that are a strain on two of your most valuable resources: time and money. If the thought of becoming self-reliant sounds expensive, what can you sell that will be better put towards your family’s well-being? After all, you can’t eat a Playstation or iPhone.
- Buy Locally: Learn about Local Harvest and find a farmer or butcher near you! You might be surprised at the cost savings over buying from the grocery store.
It’s so important that we take the lessons learned from previous years to heart and not get in the mindset that it either won’t happen again or things will get back to normal. You can grow from this struggle and become less dependent on the whims of government and our supply chain. All it takes is a little know-how and some hard work.
I pray that God blesses you and your family. Let me know in the comments below some of the things you plan on doing to become more self-reliant.
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My wife and I have been preparing for a food shortage for quite a while now. We have a food dehydrator and we can and now a freeze dryer. Our kids do not take us serious enough so we prepare with them in mind now. We have a two year supply of food now and still stockpile what we will need. Thank you for your article, it was very informative!
That is awesome! Unfortunately, that is the nature of self-reliance, you will have those who think you’re crazy. It is great that you are keeping prepared with those you love in mind, they will thank you later. That is amazing that you have that much of a stockpile, great work! I am so glad my article was helpful. If you want to help them understand better, you can always explain to your kids that it is like another form of insurance, and not just for the zombie apocalypse. 🙂
How long is clean bottled water safe to drink? Thank you and God bless.
If it’s purchased bottled water, usually about a year before you need to rotate your water. 🙂
Thank you for sharing! I already cook and bake from scratch and make handmade things like soap and cleaners, but I need to up my game with gardening, etc… I will take this seriously.
You’re so welcome! That’s so awesome that you do all those things, try not to overwhelm yourself though. I always like to try one new thing at a time. 🙂 And remember every gardener has fails. I started with easy to grow crops like beans, tomatoes, and squash. Good luck!
I am new to freeze drying foods with a freeze dryer and I am unsure about the correct way to freeze dry meats…any tips/advice would really be helpful. I have researched it alot but I really like your common sence explaning and I have read answers to many of the questions that I had on your site. Thank you for sharing.
Thank you so much for your kind words, I am so glad I have helped you! I personally have only freeze-dried already cooked meat. You want to ensure that whatever meat you are freeze-drying is cut as evenly as possible. Thinner slices are always better, about 1/4in. Always trim as much fat off as possible, fat does not freeze dry well. Ground meat must be drained of fat and patted between paper towels. Raw meat can be freeze-dried but always label that it is raw and handle it as you would normally in your kitchen (freeze-drying does not kill bacteria). When re-hydrating raw meat use a shallow pan and cold water and place it in the refrigerator to re-hydrate, NEVER use hot water. And make sure when you are filling your trays to stay below the top edge and spread your meat evenly across the tray. Hope this helps! 🙂 If you have any more questions, don’t be afraid to ask.